Department meteorologists use monitoring data and weather forecast models to predict Wisconsin's future ozone (O3) and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) air quality using the Air Quality Index (AQI) [exit DNR]. This forecast is updated two-to-three times weekly throughout the year, and when warranted, an Air Quality Advisory is issued. Below is the latest air quality forecast for Wisconsin.
Friday, May 26 - Thursday, June 1, 2023
Good to USG levels.
Particle pollution (PM2.5)
Good to Moderate levels.
Short-Term Forecast Maps:
The daily AQI is forecast for counties that monitor each pollutant of interest. The black dots represent the approximate location of Wisconsin's air quality monitors. Read the forecast summaries below for further geographic information.
Short-Term Forecast (Days 1-3)
A persistent upper-level blocking pattern will allow the current high pressure influence and gradual warming trend to continue into this weekend across the Midwest. Highs in the upper 60s to low 70s are expected today, increasing to the mid-to-upper 70s by Sunday. Winds will remain primarily easterly, with a stronger southerly component for the western half of the state. Relatively dry conditions, ample sunshine, and a recirculating airmass at the surface throughout the short term forecast period will result in steadily increasing ozone. However, northerly winds over Lake Michigan will help keep counties impacted by the lake breeze cleaner compared to locations farther inland. Wisconsin should fall into Good AQI for both ozone and PM2.5 today, with increasing chances for Moderate AQI for ozone this weekend. PM2.5 should remain in the Good AQI range for most of the state this weekend, with urban areas having minor chances for Moderate AQI for PM2.5 associated with overnight inversions.
Extended Outlook (Days 4-7)
Long-range meteorological models suggest the maintenance of an upper-level blocking pattern, increasing concern for elevated ozone concentrations as temperatures warm and pollutants continue to build in the recirculating airmass. High temperatures will creep into the 80s, especially for locations unaffected by the lake breeze. Dewpoints will slowly increase as well, which may help to mitigate ozone production. However, this will be one of the only factors acting to reduce ozone production on a regional scale. For now, Moderate AQI for ozone is forecast for Monday, with USG AQI not out of the question. Given airmass replacement is not expected to occur and warming temperatures will continue through next week, Moderate to USG AQI is forecasted for ozone through the remainder of the extended outlook. PM2.5 should remain in the Good to Moderate AQI range.
Air Quality Index (AQI) ranges
For more information about AQI ranges and colors, see the U.S. EPA's Air Quality Index (AQI) Basics [exit DNR].